Forecast Model Correctly Predicting Last 5 Elections: 87% Chance Trump Wins

Donald Trump election poll forecast

Dr. Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University is standing by his prediction of a Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election. His model, which relies primarily on the historical analysis of how well candidates did relative to opponents in their respective party primaries, combined with the statistical probability of a party remaining in control of the oval office after two terms, has produced an aggregate probability of a Trump victory at an 87% likelihood. This model has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since its inception back in 1996. From PrimaryModel.com:


“It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

In a match-up between the Republican primary winner and each of the Democratic contenders, Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote. He would defeat Bernie Sanders by 57.7% to 42.3%.




For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.  In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.

Presidential elections going back as far as 1912 are used to estimate the weight of primary performance.  It was in 1912 that presidential primaries were introduced. That year the candidate who won his party’s primary vote, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft.  As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance.  For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.”


What do you think? Will this be the exception to the rule when it comes to this forecast model? Or will Donald Trump emerge victorious as predicted? Watch the full interview with this professor below and let us know on Facebook or in the comments below.

About Patrick Stephens 162 Articles

Patrick is the founder and lead editor of the publication. Currently a pastor of many years by trade, Patrick served in the US Army and did his graduate work at both Miami University in Oxford, OH (Social Sciences) and the University of Dayton (Theology) — earning an advanced degree. He enjoys bringing a larger historical and philosophical perspective to his projects. Also, he likes comic books.